By elephants, we mean Republicans. Or maybe you have too many Democrats. Maybe it keeps going back and forth, which is the problem that Gallup sometimes has. In the spirit of learning all we can from election season polling, this week we focus on whom to include (or exclude) in your research, analysis, and market projections.
The issue is showcased right now as political polls attempt to measure voter preference and predict the election outcome. Is voter preference really as volatile and open to persuasion as the polls sometimes suggest? Probably not. A 2004 research article in Public Opinion Quarterly carefully documented that much of the volatility in Gallup’s polls results from how they screen respondents and weight their data. (more…)