Archive for the ‘Methods & Tools’ Category

13 Suspects: The Verdicts on Gallup’s Gaffes

Thursday, June 13th, 2013

innocent guiltyEven if you don’t care about political polling, or the fact that Gallup consistently overestimates support for Republican candidates, it is worth paying attention to how Gallup is trying to fix its problems with surveys and polling.

They are not happy with how poorly their polls have fared (who would be?), and they have teams of smart people trying to figure out what is wrong.  Given their high profile, they are making the process and findings of their investigations public, and we have much to learn from that.

Last week they released their findings from an extensive review, which involved outside experts as well as internal ones.  It is fascinating to read, because they identify 13 suspects in their survey process that all companies who do survey research should always be thinking about: (more…)

Why Vendors Have to Do Everything Twice

Thursday, June 6th, 2013
The Excel coding error, courtesy of The Roosevelt Institute

The Excel coding error, courtesy of The Roosevelt Institute

Or maybe we should say: why vendors SHOULD do everything twice BEFORE their work hits your desk and you send it back because you found errors. When it comes to something as complex and exacting as market research or public opinion polling, there are almost certainly mistakes the first time around. If a company does not have processes to validate data and deliverables, unfortunately those mistakes end up with you.

Recent errors in an economics paper that laid the foundation for Europe’s austerity programs provides a dramatic and painful example, as outlined by Paul Krugman of the New York Times: (more…)

Social Media Not Rocking Research So Far

Friday, May 24th, 2013

A few years back, some researchers were predicting that social media would cause a seismic shift in how we conduct brand research, customer satisfaction tracking, innovation research, and so on.  Others were not so sure, arguing that the fundamentals of data collection and analysis will always be the same.  Both sides were represented on a panel of industry experts I moderated for the American Marketing Association (AMA) in 2010.

On Monday I attended an update of sorts, via presentations in Chicago sponsored by our AMA local chapter and the Chicago chapter of the Market Research Association.  Annie Pettit of Research Now, an expert on social media analysis and listening, spoke about the current state of quantitative social media research.  I was struck by these points she made, in particular: (more…)

Respondents Jump to Conclusions

Friday, May 17th, 2013

If you have ever been called to participate in a phone survey, you probably know the routine where you hear a question and then jump in with an answer.  A good interviewer will remind you that she needs to read the entire question and all the answer options just to be sure that you offered the best response option.

We can’t do this with self-administered online surveys, but there is a way to minimize error associated with respondents jumping to conclusions:  Put all clarifying instructions before asking the question, not after.  A recent study published in Public Opinion Quarterly documented that if you put instructions before the question, respondents spend more time answering because they are reading the instructions and answering more carefully.  Not surprisingly, their answers are more accurate.

Here is an example of a typical question that has clarifying instructions after the question: (more…)

The Creepy Factor with Google Surveys

Friday, April 26th, 2013

It is hard to find an appropriate use for Google Surveys, because, as we outlined in a review article last fall, its capabilities are limited.  But last week we needed a quick incidence test of how many U.S. adults own a certain type of investment product.  Google Surveys seemed perfect.  It was not fast, by the way.  It took five days to collect data from 200 respondents.  Google says this is because we asked a screening question before asking about product ownership.  Even so, this survey took longer than a standard omnibus.

But what struck me most about my trial run with Google Surveys was the Creepy Factor.  It made me realize in a most uncomfortable way that Google tracks everything I do.  I knew this already, and I follow ongoing discussions about online privacy.  I have a personal g-mail account, a G+ page, and I use Google as the starting point for almost everything I do on the Internet.  I know that they track everything I do.  But it was never so creepy and apparent until I fielded a Google survey.  How was it creepy? (more…)

The Best Way to Record Phone Interviews

Wednesday, March 6th, 2013

We are in the midst of a couple projects that require in-depth telephone interviews (IDIs) with senior executives for B2B research.  With every new project, we start wondering whether new technologies and tools can make the work better.  For IDIs, however, I am always struck by how perfectly our old tools work.  If you ever struggle with figuring out how to record a telephone research interview in a super simple way that creates an audio file direct to your computer, here are a few “old” tools that work extremely well.

Dictation Buddy is a simple and small software package with no bells and whistles, but it works perfectly.  It records voices cleanly, allows us to adjust the recording saturation, has easy play-back, and allows us to choose various file formats for saving.  It is also an excellent tool for transcribing, allowing use of a foot pedal for playback.  It costs less than $50. (more…)

Get Smart This Summer

Thursday, February 28th, 2013

I was the kid who skipped recess to help grade quizzes; the graduate student who delayed getting a degree because it meant the end of school; the professor who told students that he was now in the 33rd grade and still loved school.

Even now I can’t resist reviewing great opportunities for more coursework and learning that can help Versta and its clients do smarter work.

A number of top universities offer condensed summer coursework and seminars on topics critical to market research.  Knowledge and innovation in these areas advance quickly, so staying on top of this learning is essential.  Here are some that we highly recommend: (more…)

Statistics Unite the World in 2013

Thursday, January 24th, 2013

Statistics in the World's Languages

Who says that Olympic sports are the only way to bring nations and people together?  In 2013, statistics will unite the world as governments, businesses, and not-for-profit organizations from 111 countries  around the world work together via global seminars, conferences, and educational activities to celebrate and promote statistics.

The International Year of Statistics is the brainchild of the several national and international academic statistical groups.  More than 1,400 organizations have signed on to offer programming and events that highlight the importance of statistics to their missions and publics.  These organizations include the top universities in the United States, companies like Intel, SAS, and Pfizer, government agencies like the Census Bureau, the National Institutes of Health, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics—to name just a few.  Versta Research has also joined as a participating organization.  We plan to contribute via multiple training activities, and to offer related presentations to students and professional audiences during the year.

The goals of Statistics 2013 are to: (more…)

Google Beats Gallup in Recent Polls

Thursday, November 29th, 2012

If there is one super important lesson to be learned from this year’s round of election polling, it is that online surveys workGoogle Consumer Surveys, which use non-probability online samples, predicted the election far better than Gallup did.  And online surveys, overall, outperformed telephone surveys.

The New York Times’ Nate Silver compiled polling results from 23 organizations that conducted at least five surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign.  He calculated how far their projections were from the actual outcome of the presidential race.  Google (a fully automated, online solution) came in second place, predicting the actual outcome within 1.6 percentage points.  Gallup (using “gold standard” telephone methods) came in last, predicting the outcome within 7.2 percentage points.

(more…)

Using Mekko Charts to Show Market Share

Wednesday, November 21st, 2012

An extremely useful chart rarely used by market research professionals is a mekko chart, sometimes referred to as a marimekko chart.  It is a stacked bar chart, but (1) the width of the bars varies in a meaningful way and (2) they are lined up next to each other.  Usually the bars vary in width according to  market share.  This means that the surface area of the chart represents the total market, and each component of the chart is proportional to its share of the total market.

Here is an example: (more…)