Archive for the ‘Future Trends’ Category

Social Media and Customer Satisfaction Research

Friday, July 30th, 2010

This past Monday I moderated a panel of thought leaders in market research to ponder the question: “How Will Social Media Change Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty Research?” The event was sponsored by the American Marketing Association, and included participants from GfK, Maritz, MARC, SAS, Market Tools, and Versta Research.

One of the fascinating insights to emerge from our discussion was that social media is not only a new channel of information and data, but that it is fundamentally different from previous channels of data. As such, it opens up new areas of inquiry for our efforts. What is that fundamental difference? It is the networked nature of social media. As we code and tabulate people’s comments on social media as part of our CS&L research, potentially we have access to the networks of each person whose comments we are analyzing. We can know how many people are reading each comment, we can measure how strong and extensive the network of influence is, where it overlaps important segments of customers, and so on.

The implications of this are huge. The impact of loyalty among one’s best customers can now be defined not only in terms of how much they buy and how “sticky” they are, but also in terms of their influence among other customers and prospects. Smart CS&L research will not count everyone’s opinion the same, but will give more weight to those occupying central nodes of critical networks. There are implications for sampling as well. Is true random sampling necessary, or can “networked” sampling provided sufficient entry points that give visibility into the full population of customers?

In my view, this sort of network analysis will bring about a seismic shift in CS&L research, though not all panelists agreed. We were split about 50/50 on whether social media constitutes just one more channel of data to integrate, bringing greater precision to what we’ve always done, or whether it represents a more radical departure. A full report of our panel’s deliberations will be presented in the October 2010 issue of Marketing News, the AMA’s monthly magazine.

The stimulating discussion among panelists also highlighted the importance of remembering that good CS&L research requires ongoing thoughtfulness, intelligence, and curiosity. New tools and technologies are often easy to install, but their value is in offering new opportunities to bring deeper understanding and analysis to research.

Stay tuned – we’ll provide a closer look at some of those opportunities for better research (and reprints upon request) when the AMA publishes its report this fall.

Joe Hopper, Ph.D.

Bridging the Quantitative-Qualitative Gap

Friday, June 25th, 2010

The summer 2010 newsletter from Versta Research focuses on how to bridge the gap between quantitative research and qualitative research, whether it be market research or academic research.  Both methods give rich insights, and both offer compelling ways to summarize and communicate data.  But rarely does each method draw upon the strengths of the other.

How do you bring the two together?  (more…)

Can Tweeting Replace Polling?

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

The idea that online panel surveys can replace telephone surveys ruffles feathers among my colleagues at the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). So what would they think of using Twitter posts as a substitute for phone surveys?

The idea seems crazy, but as reported in Science, researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have found that certain kinds of twitter data can give them a good read on public sentiment. (more…)

Trouble for Phone Surveys: Nobody Talks

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

In the old days (decades ago), phone surveys had limited utility because many people had no phone service in their homes.  When that changed, phone surveys became ubiquitous because they allowed researchers better control over the process.  Data quality improved.  Now increasing numbers of people have moved to cell phones only, which has been a significant challenge for the survey industry.  The numbers are staggering:

The number of people without home access to landline telephones is increasing.

Almost half of adults under age 30 live in a household with only wireless telephone service.

(more…)

Practical Statistics vs. Theoretical Statistics

Friday, April 9th, 2010

If something works and it keeps on working but you don’t know exactly why it works, what would you do?  Our view is that you should keep doing it.  Not everyone agrees with us.  The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) convened a task force to study online survey panels, and released their report last month (we posted a summary of findings last week).  To us, the most jarring statement in the report was this:

“There currently is no generally accepted theoretical basis from which to claim that survey results using samples from nonprobability online panels are projectable to the general population.”

Even with careful statistical weighting based on demographics, known biases, propensity to be online and partake in surveys, and so on, the report concludes that online panels should not be used to estimate population parameters.  Why?  Not because this method doesn’t work (in many cases it does) but because there is no statistical theory to explain why it works, in contrast to probability sampling, for which there is solid theory explaining why it works. (more…)

How to Conduct a Telephone Survey for Gold Standard Research

Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Telephone surveys are still considered the gold standard for rigorous public opinion polling and market research.  The reason is that virtually every household in the U.S. can be reached by telephone, and therefore we have careful methods of determining the probability that any individual person is included in a sample to be surveyed.  Knowing this probability is at the core of statistical inference, which makes mathematical purists very happy.

Here are the steps involved in conducting a rigorous “gold standard” telephone survey of the U.S. population: (more…)

Research Should Focus on Your Customers, Not on Your Products

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

An article in the most recent issue of the Harvard Business Review (“Rethinking Marketing”) argues that marketing is shifting from being product-centric to being customer-centric.  The old method was to develop a portfolio of products, build a team around each product, find the customers who need that product and market it to them.  The emerging method is to build teams around customer relationships, continually learn about what those customers need, then design and deliver solutions to them.

Not only will this shift from product marketing to customer marketing enhance the ability of businesses to deliver value to their customers and shareholders, but it will likely help market researchers bring higher levels of value to the work they do for their clients.  Why?  (more…)

Top Trends of the Decade: Looking Ahead

Thursday, January 7th, 2010

In the previous post we noted that our industry is driven by data and information, which meant huge changes in the nature of our work over the last ten years.  Looking ahead, here are what we predict will be the five biggest trends that will shape market research challenges in the decade to come: (more…)

Top Trends of the Decade: Looking Back

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

As an industry driven by data and information, market research and public opinion polling has seen dramatic changes in the last ten years and will no doubt change quickly and in big ways during the next ten.

Looking back, here are what we consider to be the five biggest changes that shaped current challenges faced by market research and opinion polling: (more…)

Forensic Polling Analysis

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Bad pollsters give the market research industry a bad name, so it is encouraging when smart people figure out clever ways of ratting them out.  What is a bad pollster?  One who makes up data to support an agenda, or who asks biased questions to get preferred answers.  The only good reason for doing research or public opinion polling is to learn or share something new.  All else is suspect.

Two researchers recently came up with methods of testing whether polling data is legitimate in a case where a research firm is accused of falsifying publicly released data. (more…)